CLEVELAND — There’s a harsh reality with the Bengals making the Super Bowl this year: It was supposed to be the Browns.
Maybe they would have made it to Arrowhead on Sunday and come up short, but no one can truthfully say what Joe Burrow and the Bengals have accomplished isn’t what Baker Mayfield and the Browns wanted this season. A division title. A Super Bowl berth. It was all right there.
Whether it was injury, COVID-19, bad luck or deeper issues, the Browns should be asking themselves, “Why wasn’t it us?”
It’s not a call to overreact, but it’s part of the evaluation process. Here are four questions they should be trying to answer after Cincinnati’s unexpected run to Los Angeles.
Are they good enough at quarterback?
This is the question of the offseason, but Burrow’s performance in leading Cincinnati to the Super Bowl in just his second season, and doing it by beating Patrick Mahomes — who, a week earlier, won a shootout over Josh Allen while the likes of Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson watched at home — just drives home the renaissance occurring in the AFC at the quarterback position.
GM Andrew Berry has stated he expects Mayfield to be the team’s quarterback and the dominoes may fall in such a way that his statement is never in question. It’s also worth noting a year ago at this time how good everyone seemed to feel about the position. At worst, it seemed, the Browns had married quarterback and system to a level from which they could win.
What is closer to reality? What we saw last year, which seems to have a ceiling but has gotten them to the postseason, or what we saw this year, when Mayfield played with a torn labrum in his left shoulder?
Mayfield’s best season as a pro came in 2020 and he finished the year strong, playing the best of his career over the team’s final six games, but his overall 2020 season stats are almost identical to those of Carson Wentz’s 2021 numbers — and Browns (and Colts) fans certainly won’t argue Wentz is a longterm answer at quarterback.
Is that Mayfield’s ceiling over a full season? Or can he sustain what he did over the final six games of that year? Answering that question should determine the rest.
Then, of course, is the question about whether there is an upgrade available who makes the Browns significantly better. It might depend on how new Raiders coach Josh McDaniels feels about Derek Carr, but otherwise you’re looking at Jimmy Garoppolo or perhaps Kirk Cousins, depending on who the Vikings hire as their next head coach. Cousins is a significant statistical upgrade who has won a playoff game with Kevin Stefanski, but far from perfect.
The Browns may believe the Mayfield we saw pre-injury was the one we were going to see all year. Or they may realize, barring Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson seeing Cleveland as an ideal destination, a surefire upgrade will be difficult, especially if it involves giving up real draft assets.
The problem is Burrow’s not going anywhere. Lamar Jackson is still a former MVP who was earning buzz for a second before his season came apart late. What if the Steelers make a play for someone like Rodgers or Watson?
The quarterback question is the question of the offseason.
How close are the Browns to the Bengals?
Holding Cincinnati up as the standard is weird and the Browns beating them twice this season — the second time facing mostly backups — isn’t our starting point.
However, even without those games, it feels pretty close from a talent perspective outside of the quarterback position. Even in areas where you can make the case Cincinnati is behind the Browns, it’s not by much.
Just some examples: the Browns are better at the running back position, but Joe Mixon is really good. The Browns have the best pass rushers, but Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard were more than formidable.
The Browns offensive line, when healthy, is significantly better, but Burrow and his weapons help ease those issues.
The secondary is close — I like Cincinnati’s safeties just a little more while the Browns young corners are exciting.
The Bengals, meanwhile, have a clear edge at receiver, but the good news is the Browns have a path to catch up through free agency and the draft.
This league changes so much year-to-year and outcomes can be random, but part of the Browns’ frustration should stem from the fact the Bengals aren’t significantly more talented. They took advantage of their opportunity this season. The Browns failed to do so in 2020 when Mahomes left their divisional game with a quarter-and-a-half left, and again in 2021 when opportunity after opportunity slipped away.
Burrow, over time, will create more opportunities for the Bengals, but the Browns will get their shots. They can’t miss them.
How do the Browns get their kicker?
This is pretty simple, which is why this section is so short: the Browns need a kicker.
How do they find him? They don’t necessarily have to draft one — plenty of teams have and missed — but they need to figure it out. Having a weapon at kicker has become a painfully obvious advantage for the teams in the playoffs.
Go find one.
Can they avoid overreacting?
We don’t really need to worry about this Browns braintrust doing kneejerk things, but you should always use caution in making decisions based on single playoff outcomes. You have to think bigger picture, something Paul DePodesta, Andrew Berry and Co. should excel at.
What you’re trying to figure out are sustainable reasons a team got where you wanted to go and then you address it.
Quarterback being super important isn’t anything new. We knew that before these playoffs and will know it long after. Is the use of 11 personnel by both Super Bowl teams an outlier or is it something the Browns need to examine and consider opening up their offense?
What elements of the Rams’ all-in approach can the Browns take, even if they lean more towards the Bengals’ approach of building through the draft?
The Browns are a data driven organization and will certainly dig into all the trends, not just from these playoffs but beyond, and try to isolate the areas where it’s clear they were behind, the reasons a team like Cincinnati did what the Browns hoped they could.
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