LIMA — For years, Lima and much of the surrounding area has been losing population. The bulk of those losses can be found not in the local cemeteries, but rather on highways leading out of the area, as migration, rather than death rates, appear to be the primary contributor to this decline.
In examining the most recently available birth and death rates for the nine-county region surrounding Lima, births in 2016 outpaced deaths, with Logan County being the lone exception, having two more deaths than births last year. In total, there were 904 more births than deaths in the nine-county region, and yet the region still experienced a net population decline, with 2,009 people migrating out of the area.
That net loss can be seen going back as far as 2010, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. with the region experiencing an overall net decline of just under 1 percent during that time period.
Why are people leaving?
Part of that migration, according to Walt Paquin, associate professor of social work at Bluffton University, comes as people leave to go to college, leading to the proverbial “brain drain.”
“People follow the jobs,” he said. “Those folks will generally have higher degrees of education, students who have gone off to college and then not come back to these counties because there either are not professional jobs available or there are not high-paying jobs available, jobs available in factories or other places where they may have come back with a bachelor’s degree to work in human resources or management.”
Katy Rossiter, assistant professor of geography at Ohio Northern University, pointed to statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that the number of employed people in Lima has decreased overall since 2009, as well as Census Bureau data showing that the population of Lima over 65 has hovered around 11 percent since 2010, suggesting that working-age residents comprise the largest portion of those leaving the area.
“This hasn’t changed much in the last six years,” she said.
Thomas Mazur, the executive director of the Lima-Allen County Regional Planning Commission, confirmed that population losses in Allen County can primarily be seen among people in their 20s.
“There’s probably about 500 or 600 people in Allen County in the 0 to 5 age range,” he said. “Between 5 to 9, it gets a little bit bigger, and then from 10 to 14 it gets bigger and from 15 to 19 it gets bigger yet. But when you look at that age range between 20 and 24, it’s smaller than the 0 to 5 range.”
That decline continues until the 35 and up age range, according to Mazur, when age range population percentages finally begin to increase again.
“We’re becoming an older, more female population,” he said.
Data from the Internal Revenue Service, showing where people are moving to based on tax returns as recently as 2015 indicate that most people leaving Allen County are moving out of state, with the next largest group moving to Auglaize County, then Franklin County and then Van Wert County, Rossiter said.
How can we keep people here and attract young people?
When it comes to being a community that can better attract millennials, the first key, Mazur said, is jobs, as young people will gravitate to an area where there more opportunities for income. Another key is identifying what amenities are attractive to that generation.
“Millennials want bike paths,” he said. “They want things to do in the afternoons and evenings outside. Other than the Metro Parks, we’re not really addressing that need.”
Mazur also pointed to technological infrastructure investment as another measure to garner increased interest in this area from millennials.
Wireless internet access “and the availability of it can be huge,” he said. “Young people wouldn’t be caught dead without their smartphones.”
Mazur pointed to the area’s low cost of living as an asset, including availability of affordable housing. The age and deteriorating condition of area housing, however, can be an obstacle.
“It’s bad, but it’s very affordable,” he said.
For communities like Lima and Wapakoneta, among others, creating a strong downtown core can also be an asset in attracting younger residents, according to Mazur.
What is already being done?
For Allen County Office of Economic Adjustment Project Manager Cynthia Leis, there is still reason to be optimistic about the future of the region, despite the current downward population trend. For instance, she pointed to the fact that more than one in four residents in the greater Lima region is under the age of 20, according to statistics from labor market data firm Emsi.
“We’re not losing ground much in the region,” she said. “We’re not hemorrhaging, but we want to reverse it.”
According to projections, Leis said, if the area Gross Domestic Product were to continue to grow at an average of 3.2 percent per year, the growth, coupled with baby boomer retirements, would lead to an availability of an additional 22,000 jobs by 2024.
“So what we’re working on is attraction projects,” she said. “In order to fill those jobs and keep the population on an upward trend, we have to have programs in place like, for instance, MakerFest, keeping our high school students here and taking jobs. We have seven or eight local universities here, and we need to keep graduates here taking jobs. We also need to keep retirement-age workers in the workforce longer.”
Leis also pointed to projects such as Lima’s National Bank Building renovation and the creation of apartments at Lima’s Metro Center downtown as positive initiatives to attract younger residents.
For Leis, the story is not over when it comes to population change in the region, with the area having a great deal to offer to those looking for a place to live.
“When you look at the strengths of Allen County and the region, we have a strong asset in our infrastructure when it comes to highway, rail and air,” she said. “We have have a strength in our population of 380,000 people in the region. We have a strength in our utilities with our gas and electric and alternative energy. So we have the strengths here. We just haven’t been telling our story very well.”
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