As the anti-establishment bandwagon rolls across Europe, questions with unnerving implications for the U.S. loom. Will populist movements reduce Europe to a hodgepodge of insular nation-states, each with its own economic and political agenda? And if Europe continues to fracture, what will that mean for the global economy? For U.S.-Euro cooperation against terrorism? For the challenges posed by a volatile Middle East or Russian aggression?
It’s too early to sound the air raid sirens, but it’s worth watching closely. Britain shocked itself and the world in June when it chose to uncouple from the European Union. And on Sunday, Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, rolled the dice with a referendum that asked voters to approve constitutional reforms that would streamline Italian politics.
Renzi lost it all, trounced by Beppe Grillo, a mop-haired comedian-turned-politician who tapped an undercurrent of anti-establishment anger much as Donald Trump did in November and pro-Brexit politician Nigel Farage did in June. Renzi will now resign, as he had pledged he would do if he lost. If a caretaker government isn’t appointed soon, early elections would be on tap for 2017. Renzi’s party and Grillo’s populists would square off again; right now they’re polling neck-and-neck.
Next year could be pivotal for Europe and the EU’s future. National elections will take place in the spring in France, where Marine Le Pen’sNational Front party is a strong contender. In the fall, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats face stiff competition from the Alternative for Germany party, which has promised to follow Britain’s lead and leave the EU if the 28-nation bloc doesn’t decentralize and return more power to its member countries. In the Netherlands, the Dutch will go to the polls in March and decide whether to launch into power Geert Wilders, the ultra-nationalist facing trial on hate speech charges. If Wilders’ party wins, he would become prime minister.
If some or all of these nationalist parties win next year, how world-rattling would that be? Very. Euroskeptic to the core, they hawk views ranging from opposition to immigration and globalization to dropping the euro as currency. France’sNational Front and Wilders’ Freedom Party outright oppose the EU. The EU is already steeling itself for Britain’s departure. The emergence of populist governments in major economies like France, Italy or Germany could prove too tumultuous for the EU to survive.
For the U.S., then, the stakes are high. The EU may be bloated and unwieldy, but it’s been a reliable partner on several fronts. EU member nations sent thousands of troops to help U.S. efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. EU countries have played a sizable role in battling Islamic extremists in North Africa. And the EU bloc joined the U.S. in slapping sanctions on Russia after the Kremlin invaded Ukraine.
A divided Europe is likely to be more insular, much less cooperative with Washington — and much more vulnerable. How much of a fight can Europe put up against terrorists when an every-country-for-itself mentality takes root, when each country adopts its own approach toward immigrants streaming in from the Middle East and North Africa? The U.S. could find itself alone in taking the fight to terrorists in their strongholds in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia.
An aggressive Kremlin is best countered when the U.S. and Europe work together to craft sanctions and beef up defenses on Russia’s western flank. What would fissures in the EU, or even its disintegration, mean for the continuation of those sanctions, and for that matter the effectiveness of NATO — the most potent bulwark against Russian aggression?
A weak, fractured Europe also could spell disaster for the global economy. Getting rid of the euro could throw banks across Europe into chaos. A new recession on the continent could emerge, even as aftereffects of the 2008 financial crisis linger. Protectionism could become standard policy. The EU is, collectively, the world’s second largest economy. When it flags, the rest of the world economy feels it.
As Europe braces for an anxious 2017, it would make sense for the incoming Trump administration to preach a message of solidarity to America’s EU allies. But will Trump feel a stronger kinship with a cohesive EU or with the nationalist movements buoyed by the same anti-establishment anger that helped launch him into the White House? For the sake of U.S. and European interests, we hope President-elect Trump makes the right choice.
