OSU column: Will it take work of art for Buckeyes at Illinois

COLUMBUS - Hitting the big time is one thing. Almost hitting the big time is something else.

Earlier this week, several national news outlets reported that Tony Dow, who played big brother Wally on the 1950s television series "Leave it to Beaver", would have one of his sculptures displayed at the Louvre.

As it turns out, Dow's bronze sculpture of a warrior with no arms will be displayed at a show in an exhibition hall at a Paris shopping center called the Carrousel du Louvre, from which you can see the famed art museum.

Close but no cigar. Close, but not quite the spot right next to a DaVinci.

Ohio State's opponent Saturday, Illinois, knows about getting close to the big time, but not quite getting all the way there.

A year ago, the Illini stunned then-No. 1 Ohio State and earned a trip to the Rose Bowl when the Buckeyes somehow still managed to qualify for the BCS national championship game.

It was a remarkable climb for a team that won only two of its 32 Big Ten games from 2003-06.

Last year's fairy tale season ended abruptly when Southern California battered the Illini 49-17 in the Rose Bowl.

Things haven't gotten a lot better this season. Without several of last year's key players, Illinois has gone 5-5 and won more than one game in a row only once, heading into its game against Ohio State (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten) today.

Despite all that, OSU has enough reasons to be concerned about playing Illinois, without even counting last year's 28-21 Illini win.

Two years ago, the Buckeyes barely sneaked out of Memorial Stadium with a 17-10 win. Four years ago, they had to go to overtime for a 23-16 win over Illinois.

"Illinois has had our number, they've played us as tough as can be," tight end Rory Nicol said.

So, what does Ohio State have to do to come out with a win and keep its hopes of playing in a BCS bowl game intact?

Start with the quarterbacks. Illinois' Juice Williams threw for only 140 yards last season against OSU. But he had four touchdown passes and ran for three first downs on the Illini's clock-killing final drive.

Ohio State can't allow Williams, who leads Big Ten quarterbacks in passing and rushing, to have another huge game.

Meanwhile, Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor has to continue to offer a credible passing threat against an Illinois defense that is heavy on quarterback sacks (a Big Ten-best 32) and light on interceptions (a Big Ten-worst five).

Ohio State also has to keep the Illini's other big-play threat, receiver Arrelious Benn, from making a game-changing play that could fire up his team and the crowd.

Finally, Ohio State needs to get the lead, then make it all about the defenses. In that matchup, the Illini should be no match for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State gives up 13 points a game. Illinois allows 26 a game. Ohio State hasn't gained 500 yards in a game this season. Illinois has done it five times, but won only three of those games.

If it comes down to defensive numbers, it should mean Illinois no longer has Ohio State's number.

The prediction: Ohio State 28, Illinois 17