Penn State's fall affects Ohio State's destination

COLUMBUS - "This stings but we've got to pick up the pieces and move on." - Ohio State football coach Jim Tressel after the undefeated Buckeyes were upset 28-21 by Illinois last season and thought their chances of playing in the BCS national championship game had disappeared.

"We've got to keep our heads up. We can't start moaning about this one." - Penn State football coach Joe Paterno after the undefeated Nittany Lions were upset 24-23 by Iowa on Saturday, almost certainly ending their chances to play in this season's BCS title game.

For the second year in a row, an undefeated Big Ten football team has been hit by a November surprise.

And unlike last season, when the stars, the planets and the Big East Conference all aligned perfectly to allow Ohio State to sneak back into the championship game, Penn State appears finished this time around.

Probably the best Penn State can reasonably hope for is to win its final two games against Indiana and Michigan State and head to the Rose Bowl for the first time since the 1994 season.

Closer to home, what does this mean for Ohio State (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten) heading into a game at Illinois (5-5, 3-3 Big Ten) this Saturday?

First, it means a trip to the Rose Bowl, its first since the 1996 season, seems more unlikely for the OSU than it did a week ago.

Now that Penn State is out of the national championship picture, the Big Ten champion will go to the Rose Bowl.

If Penn State wins its last two games and there is not some massive collapse among the other BCS contenders, the Nittany Lions will be going to Pasadena for a New Year's Day matchup with either Southern California or Oregon State.

If Ohio State and Penn State (9-1, 5-1 Big Ten) each finish with one Big Ten loss, the Nittany Lions would be the Rose Bowl qualifier because it beat OSU. If Michigan State (9-2, 6-1 Big Ten) wins at Penn State in two weeks after having a bye next Saturday, Ohio State would go to the Rose Bowl because of its win over MSU.

Maybe the best Ohio State can hope for without another Penn State loss is to get an at-large bid to one of the other major BCS bowls - the Orange Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl and the Sugar Bowl.

The Orange Bowl would seem to be the most interested in OSU since the Buckeyes have not been there since 1977.

Officials at the Fiesta Bowl might be suffering from Buckeyes overload after having them in their game four times in five years from the 2002 season through the 2006 season.

And while Ohio State did not play in the Sugar Bowl recently, it was in New Orleans last January to play in the BCS title game a week after the Sugar Bowl.

The non-title BCS bowls rotate their selection order. This year, the Fiesta Bowl gets first choice, followed by the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl. So, one of the big questions in trying to speculate where OSU might end up is if those other bowls would pick the Buckeyes before the Orange Bowl had a chance to issue an invitation.

If none of those bowls invite Ohio State, it will be looking at playing in the Capital One Bowl in Orlando or the Outback Bowl in Tampa on New Year's Day.

Of course, a BCS bowl game bid depends on Ohio State winning at Illinois (5-5, 3-3 Big Ten) this Saturday and at home against Michigan in two weeks.

The Illini, who represented the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl last season, have struggled this season. Those struggles continued when they lost 23-17 to Western Michigan on Saturday.

Quarterback Isiah "Juice" Williams has had a strong season (2,769 yards passing, 20 passing touchdowns and 577 yards rushing). But Illinois has not found a runner who can fill the shoes of first-round NFL draft choice Rashard Mendenhall.

And the Illini, who average 30 points a game on offense, have struggled defensively, allowing 26 points a game.