Lima News Election Poll: Allen County may see decisive victories

LIMA - Of the two water cooler races this election season, one is national and one is local. And, among the Allen County voters polled, the presidential race is somewhat close for a largely Republican county, while the much talked about sheriff's race looks like a walk away.

A poll by The Lima News shows Sam Crish with support over Steve Hoverman by a 2-1 margin in a sheriff's race that's been defined by residency, not law enforcement, issues.

Hoverman chose to make Crish's residency the central issue for most of his campaign to the point where he refused to debate Crish, saying he was not a legitimate candidate. The tactic has not had traction with the public: 24.2 percent said they support Hoverman, while 55.9 percent support Crish and 19.9 percent remain undecided.

Crish said he was pleased with the numbers but still working hard.

"We're working just as hard as we were on day one," Crish said. "With 20 percent undecided, there's still work to do."

Hoverman said his campaign will be "business as usual."

"The only poll that counts is on Nov. 4," Hoverman said. "We're just shaking hands and going door to door."

The Lima News election poll of 476 randomly selected registered county voters is published with a 95 percent confidence level, with a plus or minus margin of error at 4.5 percent. Registered voters were called Wednesday and Thursday.

Crish is drawing more support throughout the county: Nowhere did Hoverman receive more support than his opponent, including Delphos, Hoverman's hometown, where 12 of the 22 voters polled said they would vote for Crish.

Both candidates are running as independents since incumbent Dan Beck announced his retirement after the deadline to file as a party member.

In the presidential race, Republican John McCain failed to reach the 50 percent mark in a county that voted for President Bush 2-1.

McCain has a 10-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama, 47.9 percent to 37.4 percent, with 13.2 percent undecided and 1.5 percent supporting another candidate, poll results show.

Polls can, and do, change between now and Election Day, McCain-Palin spokesman Paul Lindsay said.

"But the one thing that will not change is the intensity of our grassroots volunteers who are mobilizing McCain-Palin supporters," Lindsay said. "Many Ohioans continue to question Barack Obama's judgment and readiness to lead, and we will continue to communicate with these voters about John McCain's plans to get our economy back on track and move our country in a new direction."

"We expect this race to be very close," Obama campaign Northwest Ohio spokesman Kamyl Bazbaz said. "Every volunteer and Obama-Biden supporter in Allen County will be working as hard as they can over the final week because Barack Obama is the only candidate with a plan to strengthen our economy, and create new jobs in right here in Ohio."

In the race for juvenile and probate judge, Judge Glenn Derryberry, appointed to fill a vacancy, is showing the value of incumbency. Nearly 59 percent of those polled supported Derryberry over challenger Deb Drexler, who was supported by 30 percent, with 11 percent undecided.

Derryberry performed well throughout the county, but particularly in Lima, where 73 of 107 voters polled supported him.

Also, voters showed strong opposition to Issue 6, which would create a casino resort in Clinton County. While 64 percent opposed it, 25 percent supported it and 11 percent were undecided.

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Methodology

The Lima News election poll is published with a 95 percent confidence level with a plus or minus margin of error at 4.5 percent. The polling took place during evening and daytime hours on Oct. 22 and Oct. 23. Polling was overseen by The Lima News, which hired poll workers.

Scientific principles were used to conduct The Lima News election poll:

• There were 476 registered voters in Allen County polled.

• Names were randomly selected from a list of registered voters obtained from the Allen County Board of Elections.

• The names of candidates were rotated when questions were asked.

• The percentage of voters polled in each township, village and city was equivalent to the percentage of registered voters who voted in the last similar election (November 2004).

• The margin of error was calculated using an estimated voter turnout of 56,372 in the Nov. 4, 2008, election. That number was supplied by the Board of Election, based on an 80 percent turnout of the 70,645 registered voters.