Obama remains the answer

North Carolina and Indiana primary voters have moved the seemingly endless Democratic presidential race significantly closer to its end.
But Tuesday's split verdict did little to answer the question of whether Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton would be the stronger Democratic standard bearer against Republican Sen. John McCain.
Obama won most of the 187 delegates available Tuesday, more than offsetting his Pennsylvania loss and nearing a majority overall. He also made it virtually impossible for Clinton to overtake him in popular votes.
While Clinton reiterated Wednesday that she wouldn't quit, those numbers probably will trigger further superdelegate movement toward Obama, as they will be reluctant to oppose the candidate with more elected delegates and popular votes.
Yet the voting pattern Tuesday was less decisive, mainly confirming the contradictory data from earlier primaries and polls. Some indicators:
• Personal characteristics. Voters rate Clinton as a stronger leader, more experienced and more political. Obama has a higher positive ranking and is seen as more likely to unite the country.
The controversy over his ties to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright appears to have hurt Obama among whites and helped him among blacks. But voters in both states saw him as more honest and trustworthy.
?• Demographic strengths. Clinton retained her solid grip on women and older, poorer and less educated whites. She does well among Hispanics.
Obama remains strong among younger, better-educated and wealthier Democrats and won more than nine of 10 black votes. He did slightly better among Catholics and union members in Indiana than in Pennsylvania. He still leads among independents, though by less than earlier.
As in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama failed to match the strength among white men he showed in Virginia and Wisconsin.
Many Clinton voters told exit pollers they would not vote for Obama, but many analysts believe those numbers will drop by fall. Voters in both states Tuesday said he had the better chance to win in November.
• Electoral strength. Clinton has won most big states that form the traditional Democratic base, from Massachusetts to California. She won Ohio, a crucial battleground, and led among Florida Democrats, though no candidates campaigned there.
Obama has won many states that usually vote Republican, but he also took some "purple" states that could be key battlegrounds: Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia and now North Carolina.
Statewide match-ups with McCain show a similar pattern. Recent polls showed Clinton stronger against McCain in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, though both Democrats led him in Pennsylvania and Obama ran even with him in the other two.
• Electoral landscape. General election strength may depend on what issues dominate the campaign. A debate over national policies like the economy or Iraq should help either Democrat due to the economic slowdown and unpopular war.
The race would be different if personal issues dominated.
McCain might benefit from high regard for his character, experience and independence. Obama might be vulnerable due to limited experience and ties to such polarizing figures as the Rev. Wright. The impact of Obama's race remains a major uncertainty.
Obama fits the public's desire for a change from the Bush years. A public eager for unity sees Clinton as the most polarizing candidate. A complicating factor is the potential role of former President Bill Clinton.
This mixed picture may do little to convince superdelegates which Democrat is the stronger standard bearer. But Obama's lead in elected delegates, states won and votes is likely to ensure that he gets more superdelegates - and the nomination.
Carl P. Leubsdorf is Washington bureau chief of The Dallas Morning News. Write to him at The Dallas Morning News Washington bureau, 1325 G St. NW, Suite 250, Washington, DC 20005, or via e-mail at cleubsdorf@dallasnews.com.